Friday, May 16, 2014

MODI TRIPPLE CENTURY IN DEBUT

Rewriting history, Narendra Modi today stormed to power at the Centre with a "triple century", putting the NDA on course for about 335 seats in the Lok Sabha and BJP an absolute majority on its own for the first time in an election that decimated Congress to its lowest ever tally. Riding a strong anti-Congress wave, the 63-year-old Gujarat Chief Minister produced an astounding win for the BJP which attained a strong pan-India presence as never before. NDA which comprises BJP and 24 smaller parties, scored a facile victory exceeding its own expectations as did the BJP which is projected to bag 282 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha to become the first party in 30 years to get a majority on its own after Rajiv Gandhi's massive 400 plus victory in 1984. Modi, who pledged to take everyone along in a victory speech, will arrive here tomorrow and is expected to be sworn in as India's 16th Prime Minister sometime next week. Nominees of some of his allies will find a place in the Modi cabinet which will be dominated by BJP. A strong showing in the Hindi heartland, consisting of UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand where the BJP won as many as 190 out of 225 seats led to the rout of not only the Congress but regional players such as SP, BSP, JD(U) and RJD.
BJP also swept Modi's home state of Gujarat and did exceedingly well in the crucial state of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Assam.
In the outgoing Lok Sabha, BJP had 116 members on a national voteshare of 18.8 per cent while Congress had 206 members with a voteshare of 28.55 per cent. In the current elections, BJP got a voteshare of 31.4 per cent against Congress' 19.5 per cent. 

This time, Congress was virtually decimated as it bagged only 44 seats, its lowest tally ever. Party president Sonia Gandhi and Vice President Rahul Gandhi accepted responsibility for the defeat. Riding the Modi wave, BJP has come a long way from a party of two Lok Sabha members in 1984. Even at the height of the popularity of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, it could manage to get only 182 in 1998 and 1999, on the back of Ayodhya movement.
The Congress found it difficult to cross the double digit mark in most of the states as BJP swept Gujarat (26), Rajasthan (25), Delhi (7), Uttarakhand (5), Himachal Pradesh (4) and Goa (2). BJP also nearly swept the crucial heartland state of Uttar Pradesh where it bagged 16 seats and was ahead in 55 of the total 80 seats. Its ally Apna Dal was leading in two seats. All the other seats were won by two political families. Only regional parties AIADMK, Trinamool Congress and BJD were able to stymie the saffron march in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Odisha, respectively. AIADMK had won five seats and was leading in 32, while TMC had won 12 and was ahead in 22. BJD was set for a near sweep as it was leading in 19 of 21 seats.  

9 per cent loss of votes for Cong

A nearly nine per cent loss of votes has turned Congress into a picture of devastation in the wake of the Narendra Modi wave. Its seat tally has nosedived from 206 in the last Lok Sabha polls to a poor below-50 in the 543-member Lower House this time, when the party's poll campaign was led by Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi. The party got 28.55 per cent votes in the 2009 general elections with the backing of 11,91,11019 votes while it has so far secured 19.6 per cent with 10,48, 29215 votes. This has taken place at a time when the electorates saw a huge jump including some 10 crore new voters since 2009 including four crore first timers. The election has spelt doom for Congress in view of the fact of a substantial hike in vote percentage of BJP, which clocked a growth of 13 per cent of votes this time over what it had got in the last election. BJP has got 31.5 per cent votes this time so far, which has translated into 16,91,13879 votes. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it had secured 18.80 per cent votes with 7,84,35381 people voting for it. As a result, BJP has virtually done the impossible by winning a majority on its own, putting India under single party rule after 25 years. Since 1989, no single party could form government on its own and the period was marked by various types of coalition governments led by Congress, BJP as also United Front and a minority government. After remaining out of power for eight-long years, Congress came back to power at the Centre via the coalition route in May 2004 when it got 26.53 per cent votes with 10,34,08949 votes and won 145 seats. That time, BJP, which lost power, had secured 22.16 votes (8,63,71561 votes) and won 138 seats.   
In 1977, when it lost power in the wake of Emergency, Congress had secured 34.52 per cent and 154 seats. It was defeated by Janta Party, which had polled 43.17 per cent votes and got 298 seats. In that election even the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had lost from the home turf of Raebareli and her son Sanjay Gandhi from Amethi. BJP will be coming to power for the fourth time since it was founded in 1980 after the split in the Janata Party. Its first government in 1996 lasted for a mere 13 days and was dubbed 13 day wonder by Congress. In 1998, the next government of BJP via the NDA route lasted 13 months while in 1999 it again came to power leading the NDA in the backdrop of the Kargil conflict with the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee projecting it as a victory over Pakistan. The largest number of 182 seats was won by BJP in this election. In fact, BJP suffered its worst defeat in 1984 after the formation of the party. It could win only two seats in the 543 member Lok Sabha in the wake of the sympathy wave for the Congress following assassination of the then prime minister Indira Gandhi. Even Vajpayee was among several top Opposition leaders who had lost in the election in which BJP had secured one seat each from Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat respectively. For Congress, it is the lowest tally, its previous low being 114 in 1999. This is for the first time that Congress was confined to double digits. Also for the first time since the 1989 Lok Sabha polls, Congress failed to open its account in Rajasthan with even its senior leaders biting the dust and rival BJP sweeping all the 25 seats. BJP's sway was so fierce that Congress failed to win any seat in Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Delhi. Senior leaders conceded that they were not expecting such a big downfall. "We were not expecting Congress to do very well but we had also not bargained for such a massive defeat," a Congress general secretary said on the condition of anonymity.  

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